A new research paper co-authored from economists with ADP Research Institute, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and MIT titled, “An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata” makes it clear how the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) impacted the probability that workers remain employed with their pre-COVID employer during and after the pandemic, as well as the probability these employers remained solvent and operational during and after the pandemic.
Overall, the research showed that the Paycheck Protection Program increased U.S. employment by approximately 1.4 million to 3.2 million jobs (with a midpoint of 2.3 million jobs) through the first week of June. ADP’s anonymized and aggregated payroll data was utilized to provide a preliminary assessment of the Paycheck Protection Program’s effect on employment at small firms.
The recently published paper also highlighted that:
- Using the PPP size-eligibility threshold — which was 500 employees for most firms, though higher in some industries — research shows that the PPP raised U.S. payroll employment by 1.4 million to 3.2 million jobs through the first week of June 2020
- The smaller businesses whom were eligible for PPP tended to fare better in April and May, after PPP funds were disbursed.
- The PPP raised the level of employment for these firms by between 2 percent and 4.5 percent
- 70 million employees worked for firms which were eligible for the PPP, thus PPP raised the level of employment by between 1.4 million to 3.2 million jobs through the first week of June 2020
For more details, you can download a copy of the complete research paper, at this URL: “An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata”.